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The climate change impacts on Pacific Tuna fisheries

By IW:LEARN

May 23^rd, 2024

What is the impact of warmer seas and more frequent storms in the Pacific Islands?

Imagine a world where tuna that once thrived under the surface begin to vanish, driven away by the unseen forces of a warming ocean.

This isn't just a future possibility—it's happening now, and the stakes are high not only for the marine life but also for the people whose lives and economies are intricately woven into the fabric of the sea.

The climate change impacts on Pacific Tuna fisheries

Some Pacific Island Countries and Territories are experiencing a profound change in the availability of tuna, a mainstay of their diets, cultures, and economies. The Common Oceans Program's research highlights a troubling trend: significant shifts in tuna abundance are expected to deliver a harsh blow to the revenues of Pacific Island nations, with potentially devastating effects on their economic stability.

Rising water temperatures, expanding low oxygen zones, ocean acidification, and more frequent extreme weather events are causing significant shifts in the accessibility, availability and trade of aquatic food products.

The Common Oceans Program is researching stocks in the ocean areas beyond national jurisdiction (ABNJ) to gather evidence that will support more effective management of fisheries. It consists of five projects including two with a focus on tuna and deep-sea fisheries. The project centred on tuna fisheries uses a physical-biogeochemical-ecological system to predict the effects of climate change on stocks by 2050.

A Sea of Data

Between 2016 and 2050, the Common Oceans Program model projects that catch – measured by combined biomass of skipjack, yellowfin and bigeye – will fall by up to 37 percent in Papua New Guinea, 26 percent in the Federated States of Micronesia and 15 percent in the Marshall Islands in the west but rise further east by 18 percent in the Cook Islands and 15 percent in Kiribati, according to the research.

Economic Ripples

As a result, the share of government revenue derived from tuna fishing licences is expected to decrease over the same period from 47.2 to 39.9 percent in the Federated States of Micronesia, from 45.1 to 41 percent in the Marshall Islands, and from 2.4 to 1.5 percent in Papua New Guinea. In contrast, further east, this figure is projected to rise from 54.4 to 57.9 percent in Kiribati and from 8.9 to 10.3 percent in the Cook Islands.

An increasing proportion of the future tuna catch is anticipated to be in the ABNJ rather than in Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs). Selling fishing licenses is a significant source of government revenue in the region and the expected eastward shift in distribution would move tuna stocks outside EEZs where they could no longer charge for permission to fish.

This knowledge will empower stakeholders to enhance preparedness for economic challenges in the region.

Yellowfin Tuna Credit: Ellen Cuylaerts / Ocean Image Bank

Tuna champions in the Pacific Island Countries and Territories

The region is the source of much of the world's tuna and catches of the major species – skipjack, yellowfin, big eye, and albacore – amounted to 2.6 million tonnes in the Western Pacific in 2022, or around 54 percent of the global tuna total.

Fishing is more than an economic activity; it is a cultural cornerstone for the Pacific Island communities.

The Tuna Project, part of the Common Oceans Program, aims to ensure sustainability in tuna fishing. Initiatives include developing harvest strategies and reducing the impact of illegal fishing. The project's efforts from 2014 to 2019 have already seen a decrease in overfishing, showing promise for future conservation and management efforts.

During the first phase of the Common Oceans Program, 2014-2019, the Tuna Project helped reduce from 13 to five the number of most commercial tuna stocks experiencing overfishing in collaboration with the world's five Regional Fisheries Management Organizations (RFMOs) and other partners.

Consensus on developing harvest strategies – a pre-agreed approach to determine catch limits for all major commercial tuna stocks – has contributed to making tuna fisheries more sustainable and transparent in all five tuna RFMOs.

In the coming years, the Tuna Project will step up efforts to support further reductions in catches from stocks that are subject to overfishing, including tackling illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing, while enhancing its contribution to biodiversity conservation.

The future of the Tuna Project

In phase two of the Common Ocean Program, which started in 2022 and is due to run until 2027, the Tuna Project is refining the biomass projection model for the Pacific and extending the study to the Atlantic and Indian Oceans. This expansion aims to improve predictions and produce a more comprehensive understanding of climate-induced impacts on tuna populations and support effective decision-making in all tuna RFMOs.

Horizon ahead

As the Pacific Islands stand at the forefront of climate-induced challenges, the work of the Common Oceans Program and the international community is more critical than ever. By embracing science and cooperation, there is hope to navigate these turbulent waters, ensuring that both the tuna and the people who rely on them can thrive amidst the tides of change.

About the project

The Common Oceans Program is a global partnership, funded by the Global Environmental Facility (GEF) and led by FAO, promoting sustainable fisheries and conservation of marine biodiversity in areas beyond national judication.

Strong demand for tuna brings economic benefits, food and jobs to millions of people, but also puts a lot of pressure on tuna stocks. The Common Oceans Tuna project aims to ensure that tunas are fished more sustainably by mobilizing a global partnership in support of responsible tuna fisheries management and the conservation of biodiversity in the ocean areas beyond national jurisdiction (ABNJ).

https://www.fao.org/in-action/commonoceans/what-we-do/tuna/en/

Footnotes

Words by Sean Sampson FAO Sean.Sampson@fao.org. Cover photo by FAO in Maldives - Everyday life scene in the Central Fish Maket in Male. Yellowfin tuna is downloaded in the market. For more information, please contact: Qingqing Wang Knowledge Management and Communication Specilaist Common Oceans Program Food and Agriculture Organizations of the United Nations(FAO) Email: Qingqing.Wang@fao.org